Summer is over! Hope you had a chance to enjoy yourself and get some downtime. Besides it being Labor Day Weekend, we know summer is over because the first big Hurricane is about to hit Florida, almost like annual clockwork. Hope everyone stays safe, especially if you life along the southeast coastline. Some very important economic changes happened in the last few weeks. As avid readers of this newsletter know that I’m hardly a doomsayer or ever like to spread fear, but the economic cycle has finally reared its ugly head and began to give us a glimpse into how much longer the Bull market will run. We posted this chart before but its important to know your timeline, whether because you are looking to retire in the next 3 – 5 years or you may be looking for a new job or perhaps thinking about starting a business. The Yield Curve inverted over the last two weeks, specifically the two main yields that matter the most to predict the next recession, the 2-year Note and the 10-year Note. Meaning, the 2-year Note is yielding “more or higher” than the 10-year Note. Typically when that happens we are looking at 16 – 22 months before a recession is determined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Remember, the 2/10 yield curve inverted in mid-2007 before the recession hit in Q4 2008, but we felt the slow down before the recession was anointed. Remember, the stock market peaked in October 2007, not September 2008.
The 2/10 yield curve has predicted the last seven(7) recessions. (See Image Below)